Crying Over Spilled Fleeces

Equities start the day flat as I continue to grapple with what might be the biggest punch I’ve ever taken. My brand, my favorite thing to wear at my desk, my identity in the corporate world, Patagonia, has decided to shun me and my ilk. I spent the past few days wandering back alleys of my town, a single tear rolling down my cheek, after being cast out from the warm embrace of a “100% polyester fleece with sweater-knit face, fleece interior and heathered yarns.” Look, when the building you work in decides to keep the office roughly the same temperature as the polar region of Mars you have to do something to survive. I blow on my freezing cold hands more than a member of the 101st airborne did during the siege of Bastogne. Patagonia, like Mouton Rothschild and Reese’s, makes the best product on the planet. If it happens to have a Baird logo on it, even better. But whatever…FINE….FINE…you won’t make any more vests for financials services well guess what, I’ll still wear them!! You CANT STOP ME. Weekly Claims fell to the lowest level in 49 years, almost breaking 200k, and basically ruined every single Bears thesis that unemployment is about to rise. Hey, dear reader, take a look at this chart of Initial Weekly Claims and tell me what you see (h/t @calculatedrisk). See those dark gray bars, those are US recessions. Notice what rises into a recession? That’s right, weekly jobless claims. People lose their job, they file for unemployment, they stop buying things, and the economy slows.  That’s currently NOT happening. Things that make you go hmmmm. 

After the open, well, since I chose to write a blog the market went absolutely nowhere. In fact feel free to DM me on TWTR or something and ask if I’m writing.  If I am you may as well short vol (for those of you playing at home that just means betting on the market not moving. Sounds fancy though right? Wall St loves fancy terms). Actually, since we have a jobs report tomorrow I should’ve known we’d go nowhere fast.  Let’s see if there’s any names to talk about before moving on. TSLA fell 8% after missing delivery guidance while its CEO spent the day in a NY court room. Roku lost 6% because apparently the market just figured out AAPL and AMZN are competing against them. *Shrug* STZ had a good day though, gaining a thirst quenching 6% after reporting better than expected earnings. What’s your favorite Constellation Brands brand (heh)? I’ll say High West Whiskey, a good solid whiskey for Manhattans. Hey…have I ever told you my theory about the 4 Ms? There’s only 4 cocktails you ever need to order at any bar in the world and they all start with the letter M.  Any bar…city, country, beach, fancy, not fancy, etc. Can you figure the 4? Email me:

The rest of the day was a pointless sideways grind and a close at 2,879 up 0.21%. So my partner Willie called this a “Ragged Rally” today. I love the term, love it, he used it to say that while we are near all-time highs there’s still parts of it that are rough around the edges. As we sat together talking it over it made sense to me. Look, we just spent 3 months wandering thru the woods worried about being eaten by a bear. When you emerge from the trees you aren’t exactly going to be looking pristine.  Your hair is a mess (small caps are lagging), you haven’t showered (economic data stinks), and let’s not even talk about your breadth (we need sectors other than Semis to start advancing.  Financials for example). But maybe, just maybe, the worst of your wandering is behind you and things will start to improve. 

Final Score:  Dow +0.6%, S&P500 +0.2%, Nasdaq flat, Rusk +0.4%

News Highlights:

We’ll end tonight with the first ever double back flip done on a Slack line. I can’t even.

Have a good night