Fall Rapidly Approaches

Equities start the day higher as Fall rapidly approaches. Did you know Fall starts on Wednesday? I didn’t either and it’s always bittersweet to see summer go. Do you know what else is bittersweet? Watching the Bears and listening to the Fed. Actually watching the Bears isn’t bittersweet it’s awful and they are awful. The Fed though…what a mess. I was hoping that they’d bite the bullet and do one of those “dovish hike” things but instead they decided to fret about China and the market hated it. Guess what Janet, if you are and your crew are worried about what’s going on across the Pacific it’s going to be even worse in the stock market. Let’s face it boys and girls: the uptrend is broken, kaput, finished. The bull market that started back when the Fed first engaged in QE has come to an end. Unless they decide to restart this puppy we are now beholden to growth concerns across the planet. No more shrugging off Europe because the Fed is spending $80B a month. No more multiple expansions because the banking system is being goosed. No more beating the Packers because Cutler or Clausen or whoever else they put back there can’t get it done. The Fed typically does a good job managing the market’s expectations but on Thursday they blew them up by delaying a decision for external factors. If they did it once they’ll do it again, and unless China turns its supertanker around we are in for a long slog. 2,000 in the S&P is now insane upside resistance, mark it on your chart because that’s the roof. Until that roof is blown off it feels like the house is in questionable shape. Oh the humanity.

After the open, Hillary Clinton decided she had enough of this whole Biotech thing and came up with this"Price gouging like this in the specialty drug market is outrageous," Clinton tweeted at 10:56 a.m. "Tomorrow I’ll lay out a plan to take it on."  So if you’re Hedge Fund bet against drug companies because Twitter is a thing…you won! We had a decent morning rally going before this happened but by lunch time it had evaporated. There isn’t a single person alive who would characterize this tape as a “buy the dip” type of affair anymore. That whole notion feels like it’s been buried in the Nevada desert next to Jimmy Hoffa. Then this awesome quote came out by Atlanta Fed President Lockhart to really stir things up: “Fed ready to hike FFR ‘as things settle down’”. Oh is that right? You are waiting for things to settle down huh?  I’m also waiting for GQ to come calling about my awesome Dad bod and tendency to wear Crox around my yard. Things to settle down….sigh. Hey, I’m not investing in oil until that Middle East thing settles down either, I’m gonna need some clarity there. Health Care led the way lower after Clinton decided to pipe up and the biggest losers ended up being names like BIIB, VRTX, ENPDP, and REGN. Nice work. Winners were oil names because when the world decides to pound drug companies it takes a break from the energy sector. We got a real mess of a market here don’t we?  By the way, with Fall starting you know what’s not far off? This magnificent goodness (how steep is that one hill...my God)

The rest of the day was commercials by Draft Kings and Fanduel. Seriously, it’s getting to the point where I will never visit these sites because I’m so angry at them. I could pick that dude who won $1 million out of crowd right now. STOP WITH THE ADS ALREADY (sorry Europeans on the recap, this one is going to fly over your head). Actually the rest of the day was quiet but a small rally kept us from closing in the red. But here’s the thing….who’s left to sell U.S. Stocks? Bloomberg tackled that question here so give it a read. Sentiment is horrendous right now….awful….so if our upside is capped then the downside is too (absent a fresh catalyst).  A new sideways range? Maybe, sure starting to feel like it until the next Fed meeting.  

Final Score:  Dow +77bps, S&P500 +46bps, Nasdaq +4bps, Rus2k -19bps     

News Highlights:

Tonight we have some wedding fails because if there’s anything that screams funny its people messing up one of the best days of their lives!


Have a good night.