Snow Pounds The US And I Pound Holiday Treats

Equities start the day slightly higher as snow pounds the US and I pound holiday treats (bread pudding with caramel? Ask me for the recipe…you need this). Since last we spoke the evil Dr Porkchop revealed his plans for world domination. Wait…that’s a different blog, sorry. I’m kind of rusty at this thing. Since last we spoke the market seems to have run out of momentum…much like Adele (did she drop off the planet?). Where did all the fresh highs go? I was hoping for 1,850 maybe 1,875 by year end! Come on people, don’t let me down here. Instead we are stuck in the low 1800’s because of two things 1) time running out – there may technically be 15 settlement days left, but I’d argue its really 10. This week and next are it for price action. 2) taper / economic data – Good jobs report last Friday reinforces that the fact that macro data is on the side of the bulls. You didn’t fall for that “taper” BS did you? Seriously, good economic data is just that....good. Don’t be fooled by all this “oh no, the Fed might purchase slightly less MBS securities than before I better sell these stocks” nonsense. The time to worry is when the Fed TIGHTENS…that’s the bear case. I’m also not in the “tapering is tightening” camp and neither should you be. Put your plane on autopilot and ride this thermal until year end, don’t let skyfalling Fedwatchers ruin your holiday. As an aside, I can’t believe I wrote my first December recap on the 9th…what is this world coming to? We need to finish this month strong, if I have to write about fruitcake and the merits of giving gift cards to your family then so be it.

After the open we saw sloppy and aimless price action, which is convenient because that perfectly describes my holiday gift giving style. Speaking of holiday gift giving, I guarantee you this is THE gift for children in 2013. If you don’t already have it get it…it’s all the rage. Wanna know the best part? You’ll be spending the entire New Year picking tiny rubber bands out of your carpet! Wheee!! So yea, the morning was quiet as the market hovered around unchanged. Take a look at this chart (was all over Twitter this morning from Monument Securities) and tell me we are in a bubble. Non US pension funds continue to be underweight equities and I’m supposed to run for the hills? Even the US based pension funds aren’t back to pre-crisis weightings. Could the market be stretched? Of course. Could we see a pullback? Certainly. Does that mean we are in a bubble? No. So to sum up: Things NOT in a bubble 1) SPX 2) Egg Nogg 3) Jay Cutler jersey sales 4) England to win the World Cup betting tickets. Things DEFINITELY in a bubble: 1) Bitcoin 2) Pappy Van Winkle 3) juice diets 4) organic hipster run fresh markets (seriously there are so many. How many stores do we need to buy kale from?). By lunch we sat on 1,809, up a couple points. Winners: Sysco (the one no one ever talks about that always seems to beat its rival), DVA, MU, COG, and DOW. Losers: EW, NFX, FSLR, ANF, and GHC.

1,809 at lunch, 1,809 at the close. That leaves, realistically, 9 days for the S&P to do something worth mentioning. Unfortunately next week’s FOMC meeting is the last possible catalyst and nothing will happen. Now I’m no fancy Ivy League PhD global bank strategist, I’m just a humble cynic sitting in the Midwest. But Anton don’t think Ben is going out like that. Anton thinks Ben will go gently into that good night. Anton thinks Janet needs some time behind the throttle before taking this spaceship into re-entry. Will Anton be right? We’ll see, but even if I’m wrong at least I got to end a recap speaking in third person. Jimmy would like that. Final Score: Dow -1bps, S&P500 +13bps, Nasdaq +30bps, Rus2k -25bps.

News Highlights:

We’ll end tonight with another “People are awesome” video. I’ll admit it, I actually like these better than the fail one’s.