Not A Recovery, A Revival

The stock market roared back to unchanged on the year (before the most recent decline). It's weird to type that, it's even weirder to see it:

The crash of 2020 was an absolutely chaotic breakdown as the market became obsessed with the worst-case scenario. Would 2 million people die? Would we have another Great Depression? Would the economy be shut down for years? All it could think about was darkness. 

But then we bounced, for a variety of reasons. Government stimulus, Federal Reserve backstops, a market structure dominated by big tech firms, the fact that it cares more about the "duration" of this event than the "depth". While we read about a 40% drop in Q2 GDP and tens of millions unemployed the market was thinking about a potential recovery. 

Recovery, it's a curious word, defined as: "a return to a normal state of health, mind, or strength." Opentable data shows more people going back to restaurants, TSA data shows more people going through security checkpoints, Credit Card data shows people back to normal levels of spending, Hotels are seeing increased occupancy. The market started to price in an economic recovery in early April and we're just now seeing it happen in real time. But I don't want to focus on a "recovery," the US economy is resilient and will get back to where it was one day, I want us to focus on a "revival."

Revival is defined as "an improvement in the condition or strength of something" and that's where I want us to go. I don't want to see a return to a "normal state". I want to see an improvement in the market, in the economy, and in the fabric of the World around us. 

Racism in every single form needs to end NOW. Let us shine a spotlight of equality across the World so that every one of us can be confident in seeking life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. 

I wrote a blog post titled "Bite Sized Chunks" that is sitting in my draft folder. In it I wanted to relay how I've been approaching all that we've seen in 2020 and how I deal with it on a personal level. Here is a snippet:

I will help in a circle around me: I can't affect the national picture but I can impact everything in a tight circle around me. My friends, my family, my community, my firm. I will help where I can knowing that my little portion of this World is rowing in the right direction.  

I can't solve the problems of the World, and they are vast, but I will be a force for good which includes teaching my children and making a positive impact in the community. I can make a difference, I know I can, and I will. 

Help us be a part of this revival, not recovery, so that going forward our nation (and economy) is better for every single person.

The world (and the market) is a chaotic place, never in a state of calm, but that doesn't preclude long term growth. Things get better over time, others don't let's focus on what needs fixing so that 2020 wasn't the worst of our years, but one of the best of them.