One Day We...

Equities start the day slightly lower as we continue to act like this (credit to one of my favorite follows @ivanthek for inspiration here). Honestly, there is no better picture to describe the current state of price action than that one I just posted. One day we obsess about Greece, the next we don’t. One day we obsess about margin debt, the next we don’t. One day we rally 1% because we felt like it, the next we sell off. One day we are putting kids on a boat, the next we are a white walker (that episode was top 3 all time). Deer in headlights, that’s what’s going on right now. Trade up to 2,120, stop and stare, then run away. Trade down to 2,100, stop and stare, then run away. Absolutely no conviction to go higher and no conviction to go lower so here we sit. Is that a bad thing? I guess it depends on who you are and what your role in the market is.  Do PM’s want a sideways year where we close +/- single digit %? I would think so, that’s a prime opportunity to outperform. Do brokers want a sideways year with no volatility? That’s an easy one to answer. Do investors want a sideways year? Maybe, maybe not. A market that trades straight up can be dangerous to navigate so a year of treading water might be good to blow off some froth. Yet we hate to lose a year of performance in our lives because little Kate’s college tuition is getting stupid. We closed at 2,110 on Feb 20 and we closed at 2,111 on June 1…embrace the grind my friends because it appears to want to stick around for awhile! I mean we had something crazy like $130B in stock buybacks in April and that wasn’t enough for new highs? What’s it gonna take he

After the open we rallied most of the morning because Vehicle sales were good and Sepp Blatter resigned. What do you think is higher…the average number of goals in a FIFA game or the % of Americans who know who Sepp Blatter is? Wow…that’s gotta be close right? I’m not sure I could even make a market on that it’s so tight. Vehicle sales beat expectations and you know what, they are on pace for their best year since 2001. Jobs, cars, hotel rooms, housing…man if we are on the verge of a recession I must be misreading the tea leaves. Fixed income had another one of those “lets smack bonds around” type sessions with 10yr UST hitting 2.26% and German bunds up 17bps to 0.71% (worst day in years). I know that doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things but stocks have tended to perform well this year when fixed income hits the skids.  When that “lowflation” trade has a bad day we usually have a good one.  PVH was the big winner today, up 8% off earnings. Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger? Yep, must be time to break out the pink collared shirts for summer. Other notable gains from FCX, ZION, ESV, and NE. Losers were IRM, CMS, DAL, CNP, and ANTM. Not a lot of rhyme or reason to the move this morning, I guess just wandering around happy that we weren’t bonds. 

The final hour saw us trade back to unchanged and sit there. Onwards my friends! Onwards to more sideways! I guess we shouldn’t be surprised given that there is an ECB meeting tomorrow but once again the market went nowhere on nothing. I wish I had more for you but what can you say about $SPX down 2 points? I mean at least Transports closed higher?  That’s a good thing right?  

Final Score:  Dow -16bps, S&P500 -10bps, Nasdaq -13bps, Rus2k +17bps.

News Highlights:

We’ll end tonight with some seriously cool bike tricks. I’d love to know how a hobby like this gets started, or what the medical bills look like over time.

Have a good night.