Well My Friends It’s Simple, The Market Is SALIVATING For Ways To Invest In Crypto.
Equities start the day higher because come on; no way this puppy is going down two days in a row right? 16bps yesterday because China is gonna park their dollars somewhere else (there is literally nowhere else), the US might leave NAFTA (I hate politics), and rates are rising (10 year hit 2.58%). Look, those are all things people banter about because there’s nothing going on right now but a loss of 16bps after the market went up 6 days in a row is random…completely random. To be honest the best thing about yesterday was KODK trading 107mm shares which was more than SPY and QQQ combined. Yep, you read that right, a dead company that said they might crypto something photographs machine whatever traded more than the two most liquid ETFs in the world. Why you ask? Well my friends it’s simple, the market is SALIVATING for ways to invest in crypto. Not “hey let me jump thru 100 hoops to trade crypto on some exchange server in Tazmania” but “I want to open my stock acct and be able to get legitimate crypto exposure without worrying about crashes and moving money.” For better or worse crypto is the hot new jam because stocks are boring af. All they do is go sideways or up with little to volatility so investors, day traders, and fast money junkies have moved on to the funky world of Dogecoin (literally a dog meme coin. Much profits, very crazy). Hey, hey, wanna do a little experiment with me? I’ll take under 150 days for Sears to announce Searscoin. Bookmark this email my friends, I just predicted the future. Man…that whole paragraph is so late stage bull market isn’t it?
After the open we were back to a full blown bull market in everything and anything. Oil hit $64 and it sure looks ready to go. The Rus2k jumped 1.5% to a new all-time high silencing all the critics who said “but but small caps”. Breadth expanded, WMT raised their wages, DAL beat earnings, Discretionary ripped, Sams closed a bunch of stores so COST ripped, TSLA was up (our analyst on Tesla is so good and handsome and witty, I hope he tells my bosses I wrote that), ATVI popped after 300k people watched Overwatch on Twitch, heck even UAA was up, I mean what more can I say here? The only stuff that traded lower was Real Estate and Utilities but that’s what happens when risk is on. Look, we have no idea what the effects of this tax reform plan are going to be but some of the immediate effects are wage hikes and $1000 checks. With crude rising and all that fresh money sloshing around the system if we don’t finally get some inflation then the way we measure it is completely broken due to AMZN and the internet. By lunch we were churning on the highs, 2,761 +0.50%. Have I mentioned that Bill Gross said “men are in a bear market”?
We saw fresh highs in the afternoon, fresh as the mountain air above Zermatt, as every index raced to new levels. By the time the bell rang we landed on 2,767, up 0.7%. 3.5% YTD on TOP of last year’s 20%+. You know I think I’ve run out of ways to describe this multi-year run we are on. I think, one day in the future, we’ll look back and say “My God did I take that entire thing for granted”. This bull market is remarkable in every single way something can be remarkable. I hope you have good advisor (if you don’t call us up, we have a ton) or you’ve stuck with a plan you created for yourself because these are the kind of markets where wealth is truly created. And you know what? You won’t sell the top, neither will I, but that doesn’t matter in the long run. If you avoid the pitfalls that destroy returns (high fees, over trading, jumping in and out, getting scared of your own shadow, poor asset allocation), then you are indeed a wise investor and should reap the benefits of this bull market no matter when it ends.
- Succinct Summation of the Day’s events: Lots of random news stories like wage hikes and bonus checks, couple good earnings reports, and a return to the market that never stops going up.
- Look, if you ‘re a financial advisor (I count many of Baird’s as my friends) you have to give this piece of advice constantly: Most people should ignore these types of short-term narratives because waiting for the market to boom or bust is an inherently short endeavor that will only create conflicts between your financial needs and your behavioral profile. Instead, establish your financial needs, find a realistic profile, construct the appropriate portfolio and stick with the plan through melt-ups and meltdowns. In the end you’ll guarantee that you save money on taxes and fees all the while adding the only type of alpha that matters – behavioral alpha.
- FOMO right now is real, which is why you need to memorize the previous link: For now, FOMO is the biggest fear investors need to grapple with. That could change quickly, and anyone with the gumption to think they can time the market will need to be on alert. Fear, like love, has inspired much great work—and a lot of mediocre results—from poets and investors alike. For investors, the best advice about today’s market comes from the 19th century poet Ralph Waldo Emerson: “In skating over thin ice our safety is in our speed.” —With Lu Wang
- LPL looked at what happens after low vol years (i.e. 2017): We looked at years with some of the smallest intra-year pullbacks ever and found that the average gain was nearly 26%. The next year, however, saw an average pullback of 12.1%, while the average number of 1% moves (closes either up or down 1%) spiked from under 13 to over 30. But the good news is the S&P 500 managed to gain a respectable 8.5% on average.
- Do me a favor, open this link just to look at the name of the Fund
- This has to be in Australia right?
- For sure this is America
- I have no idea where this is or what the guy was thinking
- I’d rather sleep in the tub of a Motel 6 than here
- I’d rather sit in Penn Station for 2 days than sit here
- You’re telling me the Pacific NW isn’t amazing?
Tonight we are going to look at the best use of a Celine Deion song since that movie where the old lady died in her bed at the end. Fun fact: My wife, until about a week ago, had no idea she died in the final scene. I mean WHAT???
Have a good night