November Bull and Baird Blog

November 6, 2013

Equities start the day higher as everything feels so uninspired. Is it just me or has the world ground to a halt? Maybe it’s my S.A.D kicking in because apparently I’ve moved to Norway. Dark at 430pm? Great, bring on the Pappy Van Winkle.Anything in the headlines at all? Some guy smoking crack in Toronto, a couple off-cycle elections, and a TWTR IPO. Blah. Did I mention there’s only 36 settlement days left this year? Actually it’s closer to 31 because the day after Thanksgiving and the 4 days after Christmas are as exciting as a kindergarten soccer game. I’m labeling this the grumpiest start to the recap since I found out Twinkies were cancelled. Actually I should be sky high right now, I stood on the 40yrd line at Lambeau field and watched the Chicago Bears pound the Green Bay Packers. Ahhh, sweet sweet justice. Ditka….Bears….Ditka….Bears. 31 days left…what possible catalyst is left? What’s gonna cause this big selloff everyone is waiting for? The market was down all of 50bps yesterday and everyone jumped on it. You want a bold prediction? Here you go: Rick Grimes will die on the Walking Dead this year. Want another bold prediction? The S&P will close at 1,835 by year end. I just don’t think Margin Debt or Bubble talk or CAPE valuations or any of these other Bear phrases are going to get it done by Dec 31. You really think the vast majority of people who are underperforming wouldn’t buy a 5% dip? With less than 40 sessions to go? I say bring it on! Let’s see what a selloff brings.

After the open we went a whole lotta sideways on no news and no action. So let’s ramble for a bit shall we? Blockbuster said they are closing their last 300 stores today. Did you know they still had 300 stores? Where are these things Rensultucky? I haven’t seen one in ages. TSLA melted down after earnings. Apparently Elon can’t build em fast enough but that wasn’t enough for voracious momentum investors. I’ll tell you what, momentum is falling out of favor FAST. Most of these high flyers are struggling worse than candy sales right now. Other than Tesla ANF was the big loser. Down 13% after reporting tepid earnings (we rate neutral). They must be selling croutons now because all I keep hearing is the word stale (show me some love). Can you believe MSFT is up 41% YTD? If I told you a mega cap company like that would be up nearly 50% in 2013 would you have asked me to stop emailing you? Probably right? Hey you know what options I saw trading yesterday? SPX March 1925 calls. 1925! The roaring 20s are back baby! (if that sentence isn’t the market top I don’t know what will be) By lunch we sat on 1,769, the same exact place we were last Wednesday at this time. Booo, bring on the TWTR IPO so I have something to talk about.

Nothing special in the last few hours and we closed right where we were at lunch, 1769. In fact the S&P traded in 2 point range for the last 3 hours of the day. So yea, like I said, nothing really happening right now. Earnings almost over, no Government issue for Congress to screw up, Europe is on the mend, China too, Thanksgiving and Christmas are imminent, and the calendar is short. You can feel the year winding down which is a bit scary. Still the market soldiers on, and those hoping for a major correction are going to be disappointed. Are you excited to hear about TWTR nonstop tomorrow? No? Because that’s exactly what’s going to happen. Oh well, at least it’s a Thursday, and it gets dark after lunch. Sigh.

Final Score: Dow +82bps, S&P500 +42bps, Nasdaq -10bps, Rus2k -44bps.

News Highlights:

We’ll end tonight with someone who has more nerve than all of us combined. Can you believe this is his job? Sick.

http://youtu.be/F_8NMODxSlM


Have a good night.